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High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035

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New CGS study in npj Journals develops a comprehensive suite of new and robust policy actions that potentially can achieve emissions reductions ranging from 59% to 71% by 2035.

Zhao, A., O’Keefe, K., Binsted, M.,  McJeon, H., Bryant, A., Squire, C., Zhang, M., Smith, S., Cui, R., Ou, Y., Iyer, G., Kennedy, S., Hultman, N., (2024). High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035. npj Journals. https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-024-00145-x 

Abstract

Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the next two years. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.


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School Authors: Christoph Bertram, Yiyun 'Ryna' Cui, Nathan Hultman, Gokul Iyer

Other Authors: Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet , Gunnar Luderer , Bas van Ruijven, Lara Aleluia Reis , Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Fosse , Dimitris Fragkiadakis 8 , Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori , Kimon Keramidas, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Robin D Lamboll, Rahel Mandaroux , Pedro Rochedo, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Keywan Riahi