Jinyu Shiwang, Wei Peng, John Bistline, Jamil Farbes, Xinyuan Huang, Gokul Iyer, Jesse D. Jenkins, Eladio Knipping, Nicholas Mailloux, Erin Mayfield, Aranya Venkatesh, Alicia Zhao, Qianru Zhu; A Multi-Model Assessment of the Air Quality and Health Impacts of U.S. Energy Decarbonization. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2026; https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c02914
Net-zero transitions are expected to reduce ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and the associated mortality burden. The magnitude and distribution of these health effects are substantially affected by energy technology choices and the resulting precursor emissions that contribute to ambient PM2.5. On the basis of a multi-model analysis using three leading energy system models for the United States (US-REGEN, GCAM-USA, and REPEAT), we demonstrate that a net-zero transition yields robust nationwide reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations and associated mortality. By exploring sensitivity analyses that vary the projected emissions from non-energy activities such as wildfires, we also find that potential future increases in non-energy emissions can offset energy-sector health benefits.