X. Li, A. Miller, J. Behrendt, J. Zhang, Y. Liu, R. Cui. (March 2026). “China’s Policy Transition from Energy to Emissions Control: An Evaluation of Provincial Trends and Potentials.” Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland.
Provinces will play a critical role as the implementers of China’s dual carbon control mechanism in the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) and in helping China achieve long-term national climate goals. This study examines provincial trends in energy and emission intensity during the 13th FYP period (2016-2020), and emission intensity and absolute emission trends in the 14th FYP period through 2023 to:
- evaluate provincial progress in meeting energy and emission intensity targets,
- identify underlying provincial differences in factors that contribute to energy and emission intensity reduction, and
- examine factors that may influence performance under the new emissions control framework.
By jointly assessing and comparing provincial trends in energy and emission intensities, this analysis helps identify underlying drivers across different policy frameworks and strategies for supporting provinces, and China as a whole, to achieve emissions reductions during a post-peaking period.