Abstract
The impact of “emerging” technologies on nuclear deterrence has become a central focus in contemporary nuclear policy discourse and security studies literature. Yet, policy analysts and security scholars often treat these technologies as novel technical artifacts with immutable technological characteristics and predetermined strategic effects. This technologically deterministic approach overlooks the (often long) process of innovation and the complex interplay among technological characteristics, strategic logics, and social factors that ultimately condition implications for deterrence. Drawing on military innovation and science and technology studies literatures, this article proposes a sociotechnical analytical framework for assessing (1) technological characteristics that inform innovation pathways, (2) strategic logics that condition use and deterrence effects, and (3) social dynamics that mediate perception, development, and deployment. The framework is then applied to the case of hypersonic weapons to illustrate how technical constraints, competing strategic rationales, and organizational factors resulted in a long, nonlinear innovation trajectory with context-dependent effects. By affording greater nuance to conceptual understandings of how technological innovation affects nuclear deterrence, the framework challenges dominant narratives that cast “emerging technologies” as disruptive singularities with intrinsic, positivistic strategic effects. It also illuminates proactive policy interventions to manage risks that could arise from technological innovation beyond hedging or competition.