Nicolletti, M., Berensson, M., Myllyvirta, L., & Cui, R. Y. (2023). The Cost of Fossil Gas: Policy Recommendations for a Clean Energy Transition and a Swift Gas Phase-out in Cities. Journal of City Climate Policy and Economy.
Abstract
This article summarizes the findings and policy recommendations from the C40 Cities research “The Cost of Fossil Gas: The Health, Economic and Environmental Implications for Cities.” Unlike what has been commonly promoted, the research evidences that fossil gas is not green or clean. It is not compatible with 1.5°C-compliant climate scenarios, and its combustion in power plants, buildings, and industry in and around C40 cities results in nearly as many premature deaths per capita as coal plants. Furthermore, fossil gas is no longer a good investment from an economic perspective. However, based on national expansion plans, fossil gas use is likely to grow by 86% in and around C40 cities by 2035, while it should decrease by 30% in a 1.5°C pathway. Based on global transition pathway modelling the overall steer is clear; governments should avoid expanding fossil gas consumption for electricity generation, new buildings and new industrial uses and avoid replacing existing fossil gas appliances with new ones. Specific policy recommendations are provided across five categories: phase out fossil gas wherever possible, reduce energy demand, prepare for the transition, accelerate renewables, and ensure a just and equitable transition. These recommendations aim to support a swift fossil gas phase-out in diverse urban contexts, taking into account varying city powers and gas use profiles.