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Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-Change Risk Assessments

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Global coal

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.


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School Authors: Anand Patwardhan

Other Authors: Carole Green MPH, Marina Andrijevic PhD, Prof Jeremy J Hess MD, Shonali Pachauri PhD, Sam Sellers PhD, Bas van Ruijven PhD, Prof Kristie L Ebi PhD, Fatimah Ahamad PhD, Christofer Åström PhD, Prof Kristin Aunan, Prof Peng Bi PhD, Prof Robbert Biesbroek PhD, Josephine Borghi PhD, Prof Kathryn Bowen PhD, Cyril Caminade PhD, Prof Timothy R Carter PhD, Prof Luiz Augusto Cassanha Galvao PhD, Prof Guéladio Cissé PhD, Shouro Dasgupta PhD, Alex de Sherbinin PhD, Asya Dimitrova PhD, Neal Fann MPH, Prof Katja Frieler PhD, Jan Fuglestvedt PhD, Santu Ghosh PhD, Georgiana Gordon-Strachan PhD, Prof Yuming Guo PhD, Sarath Guttikunda PhD, Jimmy Hilly PhD, Roman Hoffmann PhD, Prof Samir KC PhD, Gregor Kiesewetter PhD, Prof Ho Kim PhD, Prof Brama Kone PhD, Prof Whanhee Lee PhD, Anna Lipsanen MSc, Simon J Lloyd PhD, Prof Hermann Lotze-Campen PhD, Prof Shuaib Lwasa PhD, Prof Glenn McGregor PhD, Prof Robert McLeman PhD, Prof Andy Morse PhD, Prof Kris A Murray PhD, Nicholas H Ogden Dphil, Yasna Palmeiro-Silva PhD, Helen Pineo PhD, Poornima Prahhakaran PhD, Keywan Riahi PhD, Prof Sadie J Ryan PhD, Vanessa Schweizer PhD, Jan C Semenza PhD, Sokhna Thiam PhD, Edmond Totin PhD, Roberto O Valdivia PhD, Prof Detlef van Vuuren PhD