When the foundations of U.S. nuclear doctrine were laid early in the Cold War, escalation was understood to be a ladder. When states encountered crises, their retaliatory actions would follow a vertical climb to more dangerous “rungs.” But escalation under the nuclear shadow is unlikely to follow such a neat path and emerging technologies complicate traditional crisis management methods. How could emerging technologies add flexibility and risk for leaders in a crisis or conflict? What do modern case studies of crises and limited conflicts teach practitioners about managing escalation risks among nuclear powers? And what are the open questions that political science has yet to address?
At this event, Erin Dumbacher will discuss case studies of emerging technology use in recent conflicts among nuclear powers and the factors that have allowed leaders to manage escalation thus far.
About the Speaker:
Erin D. Dumbacher is Stanton nuclear security senior fellow and director of the Defense and National Security program at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Dumbacher is an international security and technology policy researcher and advisor with two decades of experience in government, nonprofits, and the private sector.
Dumbacher previously served in the Department of Defense in the Office of the Under Secretary for Policy’s force development and emerging capabilities office as a CFR international affairs fellow, where she received the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Public Service. She was the principal force development advisor for nuclear weapons, space, non-kinetic and other emerging technologies. Dumbacher also authored and coordinated Defense Planning Guidance; led force development work to address counterspace threats; and facilitated the responsible adoption of new technologies, including drafting the Joe Biden-Xi Jinping commitment to reduce risks at the intersection of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons. Previously, Dumbacher led nuclear, space, cyber and energy technology policy research at In-Q-Tel and the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
Originally from Huntsville, Alabama, Dumbacher started her career as a strategy analyst and market researcher at Atlantic Media and Corporate Executive Board. She was a Fulbright research fellow in Tallinn, Estonia. She holds a BA from the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Her work has appeared in outlets including The New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and Foreign Policy.