In this research seminar, Dr. Ying Zhang and Dr. Brian O'Neill will share progress toward integrating the impact of human dynamics on energy, water, land, and the built environment into modeling research.
Abstract: Human dynamics play a critical role in inter-disciplinary research on energy, water, land, and the built environment. Encompassing demographic and socio-economic change, as well as human behavior, these dynamics both drive changes in society and the environment as well as mediate consequences for human well-being. A PNNL project on human dynamics is developing a multi-scale model of United States population and housing. After sketching the broader project, we present progress toward county-level population projections, including the population model structure; analysis of historical data on fertility, mortality, and migration; and preliminary projection results. We outline next steps toward development of a cohesive set of US scenarios that will include population, households, and housing units. Such scenarios will enable more sophisticated analysis of a range of human-energy-Earth system topics.