In a major contribution to current debates on strategic security, CISSM Senior Fellow Steve Fetter and Research Associate Jay Sankaran analyze how a suite of emerging technologies could transform the dynamics of nuclear deterrence and international stability between military superpowers. Their article, "Emerging Technologies and Challenges to Nuclear Stability," appears in one of the latest issues of the Journal of Strategic Studies as part of a special issue examining the future of nuclear deterrence.
Fetter and Sankaran focus on five technologies that have captured the attention of national security experts and policymakers: small satellites, hypersonic weapons, machine learning, cyber capabilities, and quantum sensing. The article provides a detailed and balanced evaluation of how each technology could either strengthen or undermine nuclear stability, depending on how it is developed, deployed, and countered.
Some technologies, such as small satellite constellations, offer the potential to improve early warning and communication functions, making nuclear forces more resilient to surprise attacks. Others, like space-based synthetic aperture radar and machine learning-enabled object recognition, could theoretically enable tracking of mobile missile systems and reduce adversary confidence in second-strike capabilities. Over time, such developments could erode the foundations of deterrence.
The authors caution, however, that these technologies are unlikely to produce unilateral strategic advantages. While emerging technologies introduce new risks, they also offer opportunities to enhance transparency, arms control verification, and crisis stability. The key determinant, they argue, will be the geopolitical environment in which these technologies are integrated and the ability of states to manage competitive pressures responsibly. The authors emphasize that adopting new technologies without accounting for their limitations could result in false confidence.
In the context of renewed great power competition, this research provides a timely and nuanced framework for understanding how technological change could reshape the strategic landscape. Their findings urge policymakers to move beyond simplistic narratives of technological dominance and instead focus on building stable deterrence relationships in an increasingly complex and contested global environment.
